Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
