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Growing concerns exist about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

The Ethiopian leader previously announced in the previous year that his government's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a decades-long battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a long maritime frontage, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war started in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing access to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry labeling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a approach of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on 16 September that moves to validate "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in the country, government media has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the military was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were enlisting, which he said was "a signal to our opponents".

Historical Background of the Conflict

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the ruler ended this system and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long internal conflict ensued, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders endorsed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then allies in Ethiopia's recent armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have subsequently deteriorated once more.