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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd